Swikombiso swa Tisesheni · Xikombiso · timinete 8

Xikombiso: Madyambu ya $100 eka Yo Tshuka

Tidolara ta dzana, tichipi ta tidolara ta ntlhanu, yo tshuka eka rhendzeleko rin'wana na rin'wana, ni nawu wo yima. Rhendzeleko hi rhendzeleko.

Nhlamulo yo koma

Madyambu ya simulexini eka tafula ro kongoma: ku fikela eka marhendzeleko ya 60 ya $5 eka yo tshuka hi bajete ya $100, hi ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wa $50 na ndzilakano wa ku hlula wa $50. Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wu yi herisile eka rhendzeleko 36. Sesheni yi komba leswi ku hambana-hambana ku langutekaka ha kona hi nkarhi wa xiviri, ni leswaku hikokwalaho ka yini nawu wo yima a ku ri xiboho xi ri xin'we lexi a xi ri ni nkoka.

bajete
$100
mali ya xibejo
$5 eka yo tshuka
milawu yo yima
−$50 / +$50
ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke
$8.11 eka marhendzeleko ya 60

Kungu

Xana ku na qhinga ra roulette lerinene swinene hi $100? A ku na leri hungutaka ntsengo wa xiringaniso. Bajete yoleyo i mali leyi hi nga yi lahlekelaka; leswi hi swi hlawulaka i mali ya xibejo na milawu yo yima. Mali ya xibejo i $5, 5% ya bajete, leswi hi nyikaka swibejo swo lahlekeriwa swa kwalomu ka makume mambirhi. Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwaqhingaNdzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa (stop-loss)Mali ya ku lahlekeriwa leyi vekiweke ka ha ri emahlweni leyi u hetaka sesheni loko u yi fikelela.Hlaya hinkwaswo → eka −$50 na ndzilakano wa ku hlulaqhingaNdzilakano wa ku hlula (stop-win)Xikongomelo xa mpindzulo lexi vekiweke ka ha ri emahlweni lexi u hetaka sesheni loko u xi fikelela.Hlaya hinkwaswo → eka +$50, swi bohiwa sweswi. Ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweketinhlayoKu lahlekeriwa loku languteriwekeNtsengo lowu languteriweke wu andzisiwa hi mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke; mali ya xiringaniso leyi lahlekaka eka sesheni kumbe eka nkarhi wo karhi.Hlaya hinkwaswo → eka marhendzeleko ya 60 i 60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Hi languterile ku huma na kwalomu ka $92, ni ku va kun'wana exikarhi ka $20 na $170 hi nkotekotinhlayoNkotekoNkoteko wa mbuyelo, ku suka eka 0 ku ya eka 1 kumbe 0% ku ya eka 100%. Nomboro yin'we: 1/37 = 2.70%.Hlaya hinkwaswo → lowu twalaka.

Marhendzeleko 1–20

T N N T T 0 N T T N T N N N T T N T N T (T = yo tshuka, N = yo ntima). Khume ra yo tshukaxibejoYo tshukaXibejo xa mali yo ringana eka tinomboro ta 18 to tshuka. Hi Xifurwa: rouge.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, kaye ra yo ntimaxibejoYo ntimaXibejo xa mali yo ringana eka tinomboro ta 18 to ntima. Hi Xifurwa: noir.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, zerovhilwaZeroKhamara yin'we ya rihlaza leyi ku nga riki na xibejo xa mali yo ringana, xa dazini kumbe xa kholomu lexi yi funengetaka; xihlovo xa vuyelo bya khasino. Nakambe: zero yin'we, 0.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yin'we: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Balansi $100. Zero eka rhendzeleko 6 yi durhe chipimaliChipiXikombiso lexi yimelaka mali leyi vekiweke, lexi vekiwaka eka mepe wa tafula ku endla xibejo. Nakambe: check.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yin'we naswona, hi 1/37, a yi fike ka ha ri emahlweni katsongo. A ku na nchumu lowu nga tolovelekangiki laha. Hi ringana endzhaku ka marhendzeleko ya makume mambirhi.

rhendzelekombuyelombuyelo wa xibejobalansi
1yo tshuka+$5$105
2–3yo ntima, yo ntima−$10$95
4–5yo tshuka, yo tshuka+$10$105
6zero−$5$100
7yo ntima−$5$95
8–9yo tshuka, yo tshuka+$10$105
10–14N T N N N−$15$90
15–16yo tshuka, yo tshuka+$10$100
17–20N T N T$0$100
Ntlhandlamano wa simulexini eka vhilwa leri nga tshekiki. Wa wena wu ta hambana eka xin'wana na xin'wana, kambe ku nga ri eka xitatistiki.

Marhendzeleko 21–36

N N N N N T N N T N N T N N N N. Yo ntima ntlhanu eku sunguleni, khume-nharhu hinkwayo: yo tshuka nharhu, yo ntima khume-nharhu, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Balansi $50. Lexi i xiphemu lexi endlaka leswaku vanhu va cinca xibejo xa vona, va phindha kambirhi kumbe va cinca muhlovo. Nkoteko wa yo ntima ya 13 kumbe ku tlula eka marhendzeleko ya 16 i le hansi ka 1%; a swi fanele ku humelela eka un'wana namunthla nivusiku. Hi le hansi hi $50 ku suka eku sunguleni, ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wu fika eka rhendzeleko 36, kutani hi yima hi famba.

Yo ntima khume-nharhu eka marhendzeleko ya khume-tsevu, kutani ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wu fikeleriwa eka rhendzeleko 36.

Marhendzeleko 37–60, hi nga ri kona

T N T N, kutani T T N T 0 T N T T N T T N N T T N T N T. Yo tshuka khume-mune, yo ntima kaye, zero yin'we: loko a hi tshamile, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 na balansi ya $70 eka rhendzeleko 60. Marhendzeleko ya makume manharhu tsevu eka tafula ro kongoma i kwalomu ka timinete ta 45. Hi huma na $50, hi le hansi hi $50, loko leswi languteriweke a ku ri −$4.86 eka marhendzeleko ya 36. Yo tshuka khume-nharhu, yo ntima makume mambirhi mbirhi, zero yin'we.

Madyambu lawa, na man'wana ya khume-n'we lama a ma ta humelelambuyelo ku ringanisiwa na masungulo
+$190$0−$100+$80−$500125250375500marhendzelekombuyelo
tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · ya vayoleti p10/p25/p75/p90, ya wasi lowu vevukeke xikarhi (median), tisampulu ta 82 leti nga vonakiki kahle · famba ehenhla ka chati leswaku u vona tikhwantayili eka rhendzeleko
  • p10 −$100
  • p25 −$100
  • xikarhi (median) −$100
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$70
tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · axis ya y yi tsemiwile eka phesenthayili ya vu-1 ku ya eka ya vu-99 (makumu −$100 ku ya eka +$300) · marhendzeleko ya 500 · xa le hansi $5 · mali yo ringana
Yin'wana ya tona yi fana kwalomu na madyambu ya hina. Leti tin'wana i kungu leri ri ri rin'we eka vusiku byin'wana. Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wa $50 a wu ta herisa timbirhi ta tona ka ha ri emahlweni; ndzilakano wa ku hlula wa $50 a wu ta herisa yin'we.

Leswi humeleleke

Hi hakele kwalomu ka $5 eka timinete ta 45 ta roulette, swin'we na $45 ya ku pfumaleka ka nkateko. Yo tshuka khume-nharhu eka marhendzeleko ya 36 i le hansi swinene ka 17.5 leyi languteriweke, naswona ku va yo tshuka yi sele hi kaye eka yo ntima i −$45 zero yi nga si nghena. Madyambu ma bohiwe hi ku hambana-hambanatinhlayoKu Hambana-hambana (Variance)Mpimo wa leswaku mimbuyelo yi hangalaka ku fikela kwihi ku rhendzela ntsengo lowu languteriweke. Wu tlakukile eka straight up, wu le hansi eka swibejo swa mali yo ringana.Hlaya hinkwaswo →; nxavo wu bohiwe hi mali ya xibejo na marhendzeleko; ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wu bohe loko ma hela. Ku tshama a ku ta tlherisa $20 eka rhendzeleko 60, naswona sweswo a hi xivangelo xo tshama: ku tlhela ka mali a ku ri ku hambana-hambana na kona, tanihi ku landzelelana ka yo ntima loku nga ta emahlweni ka kona.

Leswi hi nga swi endlangiki

Ku cinca mali ya xibejo endzhaku ka ku lahlekeriwa (sweswo i ntlhandlamano wa swibejoqhingaNtlhandlamano wa swibejoNawu wun'wana na wun'wana lowu cincaka mali ya xibejo hi ku ya hi mimbuyelo leyi hundzeke. Ntlhandlamano wo lahlekisa wu yi tlakusa endzhaku ko lahlekeriwa, lowu nga wa ku hlula wu yi tlakusa endzhaku ko hlula.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, naswona wu tlakusa mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiwekemaliMali hinkwayo leyi bhejiwekeMali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke eka sesheni kumbe nkarhi wo karhi, ku katsa na mali leyi hluriweke leyi tlhela yi bhejiwa. Nakambe: handle, action.Hlaya hinkwaswo →). Ku cinca muhlovo endzhaku ka ku landzelelana ka yo ntima (mpimo wu fana). Ku tshama ku tlula marhendzeleko ya 60 hikuva a hi “lava ku ringana” (sweswo i ku burisana nakambe hi ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa). Ku bheja eka dazinixibejoDazini1–12, 13–24 kumbe 25–36, yi hakela 2:1.Hlaya hinkwaswo → leyi “a yi nga humelelanga” (vuyelo byi fana, xivumbeko xi hambana). Xin'wana na xin'wana xa swona a xi ta cinca xivumbeko xa madyambu, kambe a ku na xin'we lexi a xi ta cinca ntsengo wa wona lowu languteriweke.

Swivutiso

Hikokwalaho ka yini $5 ku nga ri $10?

Tichipi ta makume mambirhi evokweni ematshan'weni ya khume. Madyambu ma leha; ntsengo eka rhendzeleko rin'wana na rin'wana wu hunguteka hi hafu.

Xana tafula ra le Furwa a ri ta pfuna?

Ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke i $4.05 ematshan'weni ya $8.11. Ina.

Xana ku landzelelana ka yo ntima a ku ri xikombiso?

Xa nchumu. Yo ntima khume-nharhu eka marhendzeleko ya khume-tsevu swi humelela kwalomu ka madyambu man'we eka 125.

Ku hlekisa katsongo

Mali ya xibejo na marhendzeleko swi veka nxavo. Vhilwa ri veka mintlhaveko.

Mali ya xibejo na marhendzeleko swi veka nxavo. Vhilwa ri veka mintlhaveko.

Swihlovo

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ndzima 13, roulette.
ku kamberiwile 2026-09-28modlolo: wa le Yuropa, zero yin'wemaendlelo ya ntirho ↗swihlovo ↗