Nkoteko eka Roulette
Nkoteko wun'wana na wun'wana wa roulette i nhlayo ya tikhamara leyi avanyisiweke hi 37.

p = tinomboro leti khuvahiweke / 37. Nomboro yin'we: 2.70%. Tinomboro ta khume-nhungu: 48.65%. Nkoteko wa ndzandzelelano wo karhi i ku andzisa minkoteko ya rhendzeleko rin'wana na rin'wana.
Rhendzeleko rin'we
Ku na nkoteko lowu ringanaka eka tikhamaraswitirhisiwaKhamaraYin'we ya tikhamara ta 37 leti nga na tinomboro eka rotor. Nakambe: slot, cup.Hlaya hinkwaswo → hinkwato ta 37, hikwalaho minkoteko ya ku hlula eka roulette eka rhendzeleko rin'we i mhaka ya ku hlaya ntsena. Xibejo xa tinomboro ta mune xi hlula hi 4/37 wa nkarhi, kwalomu ka 10.8%. NkotekotinhlayoNkotekoNkoteko wa mbuyelo, ku suka eka 0 ku ya eka 1 kumbe 0% ku ya eka 100%. Nomboro yin'we: 1/37 = 2.70%.Hlaya hinkwaswo → wa rhendzeleko rin'we a wu na swin'wana ku tlula sweswo, hikokwalaho ntlangu hinkwawo wu nga xopaxopiwa ehenhla ka phepha ra le tafuleni.
Marhendzeleko yo tala
Marhendzeleko ma tiyimela, hikwalaho minkoteko ya ndzandzelelano ya andzisiwa. Tinomboro to tshukaxibejoYo tshukaXibejo xa mali yo ringana eka tinomboro ta 18 to tshuka. Hi Xifurwa: rouge.Hlaya hinkwaswo → timbirhi hi ku landzelelana: (18/37)² = 23.7%. Yo tshuka endzhaku ka sweswo zerovhilwaZeroKhamara yin'we ya rihlaza leyi ku nga riki na xibejo xa mali yo ringana, xa dazini kumbe xa kholomu lexi yi funengetaka; xihlovo xa vuyelo bya khasino. Nakambe: zero yin'we, 0.Hlaya hinkwaswo →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1.3%. Khume-nkombo kambirhi hi ku landzelelana: (1/37)² = 0.073%, kwalomu ka kan'we eka 1,369. Ntlhandlamano wa swi lava eka ndzandzelelano wo karhi, kambe a wu swi lavi eka nhlayo: “yo tshuka endzhaku yo ntimaxibejoYo ntimaXibejo xa mali yo ringana eka tinomboro ta 18 to ntima. Hi Xifurwa: noir.Hlaya hinkwaswo →” i 25.0%, kambe “yo tshuka yin'we na yo ntima yin'we eka marhendzeleko mambirhi, hi ntlhandlamano wihi na wihi” i 50.0%.
Kan'we hi ku tsongo
Tirhisa leswi helelisaka. Nkoteko wa leswaku straight upxibejoStraight upNomboro yin'we, yi hakela 35:1.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yi nga humi eka marhendzeleko ya 37 i (36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%, hikwalaho nkoteko wa leswaku yi huma kan'we hi ku tsongo i 63.7%, ku nga ri “ku tiyiseka” loku vatlangi vo tala va ku languteleke eka minkarhi ya 37 ya 1 eka 37. Xibalo lexi fanaka xi vula leswaku nomboro yi na nkoteko wa kwalomu ka 1 eka 3 wa ku nga humi nikatsongo eka marhendzeleko ya 37, hikokwalaho bodo ya mimbuyelo yi tshama yi kombisa tinomboro tin'wana leti “titimelaka”.
Nkarhi wo rindza lowu languteriweke
Hi xiringaniso nomboro ya straight up yi humelela kan'we eka marhendzeleko ya 37, kambe ku rindza ku hambana ngopfu: ku rindza ka le xikarhi (median) i kwalomu ka marhendzeleko ya 25 (hafu ya nkarhi yi huma ka ha ri emahlweni) naswona ku rindza kun'we eka makume mambirhi ku tlula marhendzeleko ya 110. Minkarhi yo rindza ya endlelo ra geometric yi na ncila wo leha, naswona mutlangi loyi a “tivaka” leswaku nomboro yi fanele ku huma endzhaku ka marhendzeleko ya 60 u hlamusela nchumu lowu humelelaka kan'we eka ntlhanu.
Swihoxo leswi tolovelekeke
Ku engetela minkoteko ya swiendlakalo leswi swi nga humelelaka swimbirhi (yo tshuka kumbe leyi nga ringaniki a hi 36/37; i 26/37, hikuva tinomboro ta khume i swimbirhi). Ku andzisa swiendlakalo swa rhendzeleko rin'we (yo tshuka na leyi nga ringaniki eka rhendzeleko rin'we i 10/37, ku nga ri 18/37 × 18/37). Ku teka marhendzeleko lama hundzeke tanihi xiphemu xa ndzandzelelano lowu u bhejaka eka wona sweswi: endzhaku ka to tshuka ta khume, nkoteko wa ya vukhume-n'we i 18/37, ku nga ri (18/37)¹¹.
Xana mpimo eka roulette i yini, naswona wu hambana njhani na nkoteko?
Tikhasino ti vula tihakelomaliHakeloLeswi xibejo lexi hluleke xi swi vuyisaka, swi vuriwa tanihi “X eka 1” ehenhla ka mali ya xibejo leyi vuyisiweke.Hlaya hinkwaswo → tanihi mpimo. Nomboro yin'we yi hlula hi nkoteko wa 1/37, hikwalaho mpimo wa ku hlula eka roulette eka nomboro yin'we i 36 eka 1 ku lwisana na wena. Hakelo ya 35 eka 1 hikwalaho yi pfumala yunitimaliYunitiMali ya xibejo ya xisekelo leyi sisiteme kumbe mutlangi a tirhaka ha yona. Ntlhandlamano wa swibejo wu hlamuseriwa hi tiyuniti leswaku wu tirha eka tafula rin'wana na rin'wana.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yin'we, leyi nga vuyelo bya khasinotinhlayoVuyelo bya khasinoXiphemu xa mali ya xibejo xin'wana na xin'wana lexi khasino yi xi hlayisaka hi xiringaniso: 2.70% eka roulette ya le Yuropa.Hlaya hinkwaswo → hi xivumbeko xa yona xa masungulo. Ku hundzuluxa: mpimo lowu lwisanaka = (1 − p)/p; nkoteko = 1/(mpimo + 1).
Fomula
Swivutiso
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0.073%.
36/37 = 97.3%. Zero i leswi seleke.
Hinkwato ta 37 i 1/37. Khume-nkombo i nomboro leyi bhejiwaka ngopfu, naswona leswi i mhaka ya vanhu.
Ku Tihungasa hi Tinhlayo
Ringeta leswi hi wexe ku sungula. Nhlamulo yin'wana na yin'wana yi pfariwile; yi pfula loko u lunghekile.
U bheja eka yo tshukaxibejoYo tshukaXibejo xa mali yo ringana eka tinomboro ta 18 to tshuka. Hi Xifurwa: rouge.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, rhendzeleko endzhaku ka rhendzeleko. I wihi nkoteko wa leswaku ku hlula ka wena ka vuntlhanu ku fika hi ku kongoma eka rhendzeleko ra vunhungu? Naswona wa leswaku u va na ku hlula ka ntlhanu endzeni ka marhendzeleko yo sungula ya nhungu?
Komba nhlamulo
Nhlamulo 12.9%, kwalomu ka 1 eka 8, eka ku hlula ka vuntlhanu eka rhendzeleko ra vunhungu. 33.4% eka ku hlula ka ntlhanu ku nga si hela nkarhi wolowo.
Ku hlula ka vuntlhanu eka rhendzeleko ra vunhungu swi vula swilo swimbirhi: rhendzeleko ra vunhungu ri hlula, naswona marhendzeleko yo sungula ya nkombo ma na ku hlula ka mune hi ku kongoma na ku lahlekeriwa kunharhu, hi ku landzelelana kun'wana na kun'wana. Ku na tindlela ta 35 to veka ku hlula ka mune exikarhi ka marhendzeleko ya nkombo.
Hikwalaho nkoteko i 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0.02725 × 0.1354 = 12.9%.
Eka ku hlula ka ntlhanu ku nga si fika rhendzeleko ra vunhungu, engetela xiphemu xa muxaka lowu fanaka eka ku hlula ka vuntlhanu eka marhendzeleko ya vuntlhanu, ya vutsevu na ya vunkombo: 2.7% + 7.0% + 10.8% + 12.9% = 33.4%. Vativi va xitatistiki va swi vitana ku hangalaka ka negative binomial: matshalatshala mangani lama lavekaka leswaku ku humelela nhlayo leyi vekiweke ya ku hlula. Taylor (2021) u tirha xivutiso lexi fanaka eka vhilwa ra le Amerika, 12.2%.
Ku hlekisa katsongo

Hlaya tikhamara. Avanyisa hi 37. Andzisa eka ndzandzelelano. Swi herile.
Swihlovo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.