Maqhinga ya ku Bheja eka Roulette · Swa xiviri · timinete 7

Ndzilakano wa ku Lahlekeriwa / Ndzilakano wa ku Hlula

Nawu wa ku yima i xiphemu xin'we ntsena xa “sisiteme” lexi nga ni vuyelo bya xiviri, hikuva wu cinca mali leyi u yi bhejaka.

Nhlamulo yo koma

Ku yima ka ha ri khale swi hunguta mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke, hikwalaho swi hunguta ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke. A swi tumbuluxi vuyelo; ndzilakano wa ku hlula a wu “khomi” nchumu lexi rhendzeleko leri landzelaka a ri nga ta xi nyika kumbe ku xi teka.

vuyelo eka EV / $
a byi kona
vuyelo eka mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke
byikulu
vuyelo eka variance
byikulu
i mani a hlawulaka
wena, ka ha ri emahlweni

Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa (stop-loss)

Veka mali leyi u tiyimiseleke ku yi lahlekeriwa kutani u suka loko yi herile. Wu pimela xiyimo xo biha swinene, wu hetisa sesheni ku nga si sungula ku hlongorisa leswi lahlekeke, naswona wu endla leswaku ntsengo lowu languteriweke wa madyambu wu hlayeka: a wu tshuki wu tlula ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwaqhingaNdzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa (stop-loss)Mali ya ku lahlekeriwa leyi vekiweke ka ha ri emahlweni leyi u hetaka sesheni loko u yi fikelela.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, hakanyingi wu le hansi. Eka milawu hinkwayo ya websayiti leyi, hi wona lowu cincaka hi ku tshembeka swinene leswi humelelaka eka mutlangi, hikuva hi wona ntsena lowu hetisaka sesheni hi ku tshembeka.

Ndzilakano wa ku hlula (stop-win)

Veka xikongomelo kutani u suka loko u xi fikelerile. Swi endla leswaku tisesheni to hlula ti tala naswona ti va titsongo. Eka tisesheni to tala xiringaniso xa ha ri −2.70% ya mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiwekemaliMali hinkwayo leyi bhejiwekeMali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke eka sesheni kumbe nkarhi wo karhi, ku katsa na mali leyi hluriweke leyi tlhela yi bhejiwa. Nakambe: handle, action.Hlaya hinkwaswo →; u hangalasile nkarhi lowu ku lahlekeriwa ku taka ha wona, a wu ku susanga. Xiga lexi nge “ku khoma mpindzulo” xi hlamusela ndlela leyi u titwaka ha yona. Rhendzeleko leri landzelaka a ri ta tshama ri ri 18/37 hambi u ri tlanga namuntlha kumbe vhiki leri taka.

$10 eka yo tshuka, bajete ya $500, marhendzeleko ya 100 hi ku tlulaku nga yimindzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa $100ndzilakano wa ku hlula $100hamambirhi
tisesheni leti helaka ti ri ehenhla≈ 42%≈ 42%≈ 53%≈ 50%
mbuyelo hi xiringaniso−$27−$22−$20−$16
5% ya tisesheni leti bihaka swinene−$190−$100−$190−$100
5% ya tisesheni leti antswaka swinene+$140+$140+$100+$100
marhendzeleko lama tlangiweke hi xiringaniso100≈ 85≈ 75≈ 60
Simulexini. Ku yima ku hunguta ku lahlekeriwa hi xiringaniso hi ku hunguta marhendzeleko ntsena. Ku lahlekeriwa eka rhendzeleko a ku cinci.

Njhekanjhekisano wa khale

Ku kaneriwe nkarhi wo leha leswaku xana ku yima u ri ehenhla swa pfuna. Mutivi wa vutlhari bya mianakanyo John Venn u vulile leswaku mutlangi loyi a nga ntsena a hlawulaka loko a yima u na vuyelo, loko ntsena xikweleti xi nga ri na ndzilakano. Lord Rayleigh u hlamurile leswaku loko rifuwo ri ri na ndzilakano eka matlhelo hamambirhi vuyelo byi nyamalala, naswona tithiyori ta manguva lawa ta pfumelelana: a ku na nawu wa ku hlawula loko u yima lowu cincaka mbuyelo hi xiringaniso eka yunitimaliYunitiMali ya xibejo ya xisekelo leyi sisiteme kumbe mutlangi a tirhaka ha yona. Ntlhandlamano wa swibejo wu hlamuseriwa hi tiyuniti leswaku wu tirha eka tafula rin'wana na rin'wana.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yin'wana na yin'wana leyi bhejiweke (Epstein, 2013). Xifurwa xi na xiga xa ku suka etafuleni u ri ehenhla, faire Charlemagne. Xi vitana mukhuva, a hi vuyelo.

John Venn u vulile leswaku mutlangi loyi a hlawulaka loko a yima u na vuyelo; Lord Rayleigh u hlamurile leswaku loko rifuwo ri ri na ndzilakano vuyelo byi nyamalala.

Ha yini xiringaniso xi antswa

A hi hikuva ku yima ku kuma nkarhi lowunene wa ku suka. Hikuva sesheni leyi helaka endzhaku ka marhendzeleko ya 60 yi bheje swibejo swa 60 ematshan'weni ya 100 naswona yi hakele 2.70% eka tidolara ti nga ri tingani. Nawu wihi na wihi lowu hungutaka mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke wu hunguta ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweketinhlayoKu lahlekeriwa loku languteriwekeNtsengo lowu languteriweke wu andzisiwa hi mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke; mali ya xiringaniso leyi lahlekaka eka sesheni kumbe eka nkarhi wo karhi.Hlaya hinkwaswo → hi mpimo lowu ringanaka hi ku kongoma: ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa, ndzilakano wa ku hlulaqhingaNdzilakano wa ku hlula (stop-win)Xikongomelo xa mpindzulo lexi vekiweke ka ha ri emahlweni lexi u hetaka sesheni loko u xi fikelela.Hlaya hinkwaswo →, ndzilakano wa nkarhi, nhlayo ya marhendzeleko kumbe mali ya xibejo yo tsongo ntsena.

Ku hlawula tinomboro

Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wa 20–40% wa bajete ya sesheni wu endla leswaku vusiku byo biha byi tiyiseleka, handle ko va wu tiyile ngopfu lerova variancetinhlayoKu Hambana-hambana (Variance)Mpimo wa leswaku mimbuyelo yi hangalaka ku fikela kwihi ku rhendzela ntsengo lowu languteriweke. Wu tlakukile eka straight up, wu le hansi eka swibejo swa mali yo ringana.Hlaya hinkwaswo → yo tolovelekeka yi wu fikelela vusiku byo tala. Ndzilakano wa ku hlula wa 20–50% wa bajete wu fikeleleka eka sesheni leyi tolovelekeke (mali yo ringana yi fika eka +$100 ku suka eka $500 nkarhi wun'wana eka kwalomu ka hafu ya tisesheni ta marhendzeleko ya 100) handle ko va wu ri wutsongo ngopfu. Tinomboro i ta munhu hi xiyexe; ku tiyimisela ku ti tsala a hi swona.

Tisesheni ta khume ta $10; ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa wa $100 a wu ta hetisa leti rhelelaka ka ha ri khalembuyelo ku ringanisiwa na masungulo
+$420$0−$500+$140−$2500125250375500marhendzelekombuyelo
tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · ya vayoleti p10/p25/p75/p90, ya wasi lowu vevukeke xikarhi (median), tisampulu ta 83 leti nga vonakiki kahle · famba ehenhla ka chati leswaku u vona tikhwantayili eka rhendzeleko
  • p10 −$460
  • p25 −$300
  • xikarhi (median) −$140
  • p75 +$0
  • p90 +$140
tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · axis ya y yi tsemiwile eka phesenthayili ya vu-1 ku ya eka ya vu-99 (makumu −$500 ku ya eka +$640) · marhendzeleko ya 500 · xa le hansi $10 · mali yo ringana

Nawu lowu khumbaka milawu

Nawu wa ku yima wu tirha ntsena loko wu hlawuriwile sesheni yi nga si sungula naswona wu nga cinciwi hi nkarhi wa yona. “Rhendzeleko rin'we ntsena ku tlhelela eka ku ringana” i ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa lowu kanerisanaka nakambe hi munhu loyi a wu endleriwe ku n'wi sirhelela. Loko u kuma leswi swi humelela, hunguta mali ya xibejo ematshan'weni ya ku tlakusa ndzilakano.

Swivutiso

Xana ndzilakano wa ku hlula wu hlula khasino?

E-e. Wu endla leswaku ku hlula kutsongo ku tala naswona wu siya xiringaniso xa nkarhi wo leha eka −2.70% ya leswi u swi bhejeke.

Xana ndzilakano wa nkarhi wu antswa ku fana na ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa?

Wu hunguta mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke hi ndlela leyi fanaka naswona wu olova ku wu landzela. Tirhisa hamambirhi.

Ku ta endleka yini loko ndzi fikelela ndzilakano wa ku hlula ka ha ri khale?

Suka. Hi wona nawu. Marhendzeleko lawa u nga ma tlangangiki a ma durhi nchumu.

Ku hlekisa katsongo

Ku yima swi hunguta mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke. Hi swona ntsena leswi swi swi endlaka, naswona swa ringanela.

Ku yima swi hunguta mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke. Hi swona ntsena leswi swi swi endlaka, naswona swa ringanela.

Swihlovo

  1. RouletteDoc. Nkatsakanyo wa maqhinga ya roulette. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
  2. Roulette77. Nkatsakanyo wa maqhinga ya roulette. https://roulette77.us/strategies
  3. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ndzima 13, roulette.
  4. Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
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