Qhinga · Ku andzisa endzhaku ka ku lahlekeriwa · timinete ta 9

Qhinga ra Martingale eka Roulette

Qhinga ra Martingale eka roulette ri andzisa xibejo kambirhi endzhaku ka ku lahlekeriwa kun'wana na kun'wana kutani ri tlhelela eka xibejo xo sungula endzhaku ka ku hlula. Ku hlula kun'wana na kun'wana ku vuyisa ku lahlekeriwa hinkwako loku hundzeke ku engeteriwa yuniti yin'we ya xibejo xo sungula. Pheji leyi landzelaka yi kombisa leswi sweswo swi swi endlaka eka mali ya ku tlanga, na leswaku hikwalaho ka yini swi nga swi koti ku cinca ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke.

Nhlamulo yo komaA yi hluli vhilwa. Tanihi qhinga ra roulette ra ku andzisa kambirhi, Martingale yi humesa ku hlula kutsongo ko tala na ku lahlekeriwa lokukulu nkarhi na nkarhi. Eka nhlayo yihi na yihi ya marhendzeleko ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke ka ha ri 2.70% ya mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke, naswona hikuva ntlhandlamano wu bheja swo tala, ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke eka sesheni ku tlula ka ku bheja hi mpimo wun'we, a ku hunguteki.

Xana sisiteme ya Martingale eka roulette yi tirha njhani?

Lahlekeriwa, kutani u andzisa kambirhi. Hlula, kutani u tlhelela eka xibejo xo sungula. Leyo i sisiteme hinkwayo. Hi xibejo xo sungula xa $10 na ndzilakano wa tafula wa $500, ntlhandlamano wu hela endzhaku ko lahlekeriwa ka tsevu. Kholomu yo hetelela i nkoteko wa ku fika eka goza rero eka xibejo xa mali yo ringana, laha ku lahlekeriwa kun'wana na kun'wana ku nga na nkoteko wa 19/37.

ku lahlekeriwa #xibejo lexi landzelakaleswi vekiweke ekhombyenip(ku fika)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Xibejo xo sungula $10, ndzilakano wa tafula $500. Endzhaku ko lahlekeriwa ka tsevu, xibejo lexi landzelaka i $640, ehenhla ka ndzilakano: ntlhandlamano wa swibejo wu tshoveka, $630 yi lahlekile. Nkoteko wa ku lahlekeriwa ka tsevu hi ku landzelelana eka yo tshuka i (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, kwalomu ka kan'we eka mindzingeto ya 55.

Famba eka sisiteme

Ku lahlekeriwa ku phindha mali ya xibejo kambirhi. Ku hlula ku tlhelela eku sunguleni.

xibejo lexi landzelaka1mbuyelo ku fikela sweswi0marhendzeleko0

Mali ya swibejo na mimbuyelo swi le ka tiyuniti ta xibejo xa le hansi.

Xana sesheni yi languteka njhani?

Magoza matsongo ku ya ehenhla, kutani nkele. Eka Martingale ya roulette ntlhandlamano wun'wana na wun'wana wa ku andzisa kambirhi lowu hetisekeke wu engetela xibejo xin'we xo sungula, hikwalaho layini yi khandziya hi ku tshamiseka. Ntlhandlamano lowu fikaka eka ndzilakano wa $500 wu tlherisa $630 hi nkarhi wun'we: magoza ya 63 ya wona.

Tisesheni ta khume ta Martingale, xibejo xo sungula $10, ndzilakano $500mbuyelo ku ringanisiwa na masungulo

tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · ya vayoleti p10/p25/p75/p90, ya wasi lowu vevukeke xikarhi (median), tisampulu ta 83 leti nga vonakiki kahle · famba ehenhla ka chati leswaku u vona tikhwantayili eka rhendzeleko

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
xikarhi (median) −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

tisesheni ta 1,000 × marhendzeleko ya 500 · axis ya y yi tsemiwile eka phesenthayili ya vu-1 ku ya eka ya vu-99 (makumu −$1,000 ku ya eka +$2,640) · marhendzeleko ya 500 · xa le hansi $10 · mali yo ringana

Layini yin'wana na yin'wana i sesheni yin'we ya swibejo swa mali yo ringana ku suka eka mali ya ku tlanga ya $1,000. Ku khandziya ko leha, ku wa hi xitshuketa.

Magoza matsongo ku ya ehenhla, kutani nkele lowu ma tlherisaka hinkwawo hi nkarhi wun'we.

Simuleta

Xiyimiso xin'wana na xin'wana xi tirhisa tisesheni ta 2,000 ta swibejo swa mali yo ringana ku suka eka mali ya ku tlanga ya $1,000. Mimbuyelo yi cinca hi ku hatlisa.

Xibejo xa le hansi

Ndzilakano wa tafula

Marhendzeleko eka sesheni

Mimbuyelo ya tisesheni · tisesheni ta 2,000 · marhendzeleko ya 100 · xa le hansi $10 · ndzilakano $500ku lahlekeriwa ← | → mpindzulo

−$1,000$0+$650

yima ehenhla ka bara · tibara to tshuka i tisesheni leti lahlekeriweke, ta rihlaza i leti hluleke, bara yo basa yi tsemakanya $0

tisesheni leti nga na mpindzulo

40.8%

mbuyelo wa le xikarhi (median)

−$130

mbuyelo wa xiringaniso

−$66.44

ntlhandlamano wu tshovekile

59.3% wa tisesheni

phesenthayili ya vu-5

−$1,000

ku hunguteka ka mali ko kulu (median)

−$650

Tisesheni to tala ti hela ti ri emahlweni katsongo (40.8%), naswona hi swona swi koketaka. Xiringaniso xi le hansi ka zero (−$66.44) hikuva tisesheni leti lahlekeriweke ti lahlekeriwa swinene: ntlhandlamano wa swibejo wu fikile eka ndzilakano wa tafula eka 59.3% wa tisesheni. Mutlangi loyi a bhejaka hi mpimo wun'we wa $10 eka marhendzeleko lama fanaka u languterile ku lahlekeriwa kwalomu ka $27.

Ndzandzelelano wa ku lahlekeriwa wu ta kangani

Xibejo xa mali yo ringana eka vhilwa ra zero yin'we xi lahlekeriwa eka marhendzeleko ya 19 eka 37. Mula wun'wana ni wun'wana i nkoteko wa leswaku marhendzeleko yo karhi hinkwawo ma lahlekeriwa, na leswi mutlangi wa Martingale, loyi a phindhaka kambirhi loko a lahlekeriwile, a lahlekeriweke swona hi nkarhi wolowo.

Xibejo xa le hansi

ku lahlekeriwa hi ku landzelelana	nkoteko	kwalomu ka 1 eka	leswi lahlekeke sweswi	xibejo lexi landzelaka
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Nkoteko i 19/37 lowu andzisiwaka hi wona n'wexe kan'we eka ku lahlekeriwa kun'wana ni kun'wana, ku hlayiwa ku sukela eka rhendzeleko rin'we. Sesheni yo leha yi na marhendzeleko yo tala laha ndzandzelelano wo tano wu nga sungulaka kona, hikwalaho eka nimadyambu nkoteko wa wona wu kulu ngopfu ku tlula leswi mula wun'we wu swi kombaka.

Ndzandzelelano wa ku lahlekeriwa ka khume ntlhanu wu humelela kwalomu ka kan'we eka mindzingeto ya 22,000. Sweswo swi twala swi hlayisekile. A swi tano, hikwalaho ka swivangelo swimbirhi. Rhendzeleko rin'wana na rin'wana ri sungula ndzingeto lowuntshwa, naswona nimadyambu wun'we wu na marhendzeleko ya madzana. Naswona a nga kona loyi a fikaka eka khume ntlhanu: ku suka eka xibejo xo sungula xa $10, ndzilakano wa $500 wu herisa ku andzisa kambirhi endzhaku ko lahlekeriwa ka tsevu, loku humelelaka kwalomu ka kan'we eka mindzingeto ya 55.

Hikwalaho ka yini yi nga swi koti ku cinca minkoteko?

Ntsengo lowu languteriweke wa hlanganiseka. Loko xibejo xin'wana na xin'wana xi ri na ntsengo lowu languteriweke wa −2.70% ya mali ya xona, kutani ntlhandlamano wihi na wihi wa swibejo, hambi mali ya swona yi hlawuriwa njhani, wu na ntsengo lowu languteriweke wa −2.70% ya mali hinkwayo leyi bhejiweke. Ku hlawula mali ya xibejo swi nga titshega hi mimbuyelo leyi hundzeke; a swi koti ku titshega hi leyi landzelaka.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ yi hlawuriwa emahlweni ka rhendzeleko i; Xᵢ = ±1 yi tiyimerile eka bᵢ

Mavonelo yo hoxeka lama tolovelekeke

“U lava ku hlula kan'we ntsena ku vuyisa hinkwaswo.”

I ntiyiso eka ntlhandlamano lowu hetisekaka. Ntlhandlamano lowu nga hetisekiki, hikwalaho ka ndzilakano wa tafula kumbe mali ya wena ya ku tlanga, wu lahlekeriwa hi ntlhandlamano hinkwawo, naswona ntlhandlamano wolowo i wukulu hi ku endliwa ka wona.

“Loko mali ya ku tlanga yi ri yikulu ngopfu a yi nge tsandzeki.”

Ndzilakano wa tafula wu yimisa ku andzisa kambirhi khale mali yo tala ya ku tlanga yi nga si hela. Loko ku nga ri na ndzilakano, mali ya ku tlanga leyi lavekaka yi kula hi rivilo leri andzaka (exponentially) kasi mpindzulo eka ntlhandlamano wun'wana na wun'wana wu tshama wu ri yuniti yin'we ya xibejo xo sungula.

“Ku lahlekeriwa ka tsevu hi ku landzelelana a swi koteki.”

Eka yo tshuka swi humelela eka 1.83% ya mintlawa ya marhendzeleko ya tsevu. Eka sesheni ya marhendzeleko ya 200 hakanyingi u ta vona ndzandzelelano wun'we wa tsevu kumbe ku tlula.

Ku hlekisa katsongo

Ku hlula kutsongo ko tala, ku lahlekeriwa lokukulu kan'we hi nkarhi wo leha. Naswona xikoxo u xi hakela hi wexe.

Makumu ya tinhlayoSisiteme ya Martingale eka roulette yi cincana nkoteko lowukulu wa ku hlula kutsongo hi nkoteko lowutsongo wa ku lahlekeriwa lokukulu. I inshurensi leyi xavisiwaka hi ndlela yo hundzuluka: u amukela xihakelo xitsongo eka vusiku byo tala, kutani u hakela xikoxo lexikulu lexi nga talangiki hi wexe. Yi engetela mali leyi bhejiweke eka sesheni, hikwalaho yi engetela ku lahlekeriwa loku languteriweke eka sesheni. A yi hunguti naswona a yi swi koti ku hunguta vuyelo bya khasino. Loko u tirhisa qhinga ra Martingale eka roulette hambiswiritano, tiva ndhawu ya wena yo tshoveka ka ha ri emahlweni: hi xibejo xo sungula xa $10 na ndzilakano wa $500, leyo i ku lahlekeriwa ka tsevu hi ku landzelelana, xiendlakalo xa 1.8% eka ndzingeto wun'wana na wun'wana. Languta Ku lawula mali ya ku tlanga na Ndzilakano wa ku lahlekeriwa / ndzilakano wa ku hlula.